“The risk of over-tightening by the European Central Bank is nothing less than catastrophic” says Prof Kenneth Rogoff .
At Davos he also said: “Italy is extremely vulnerable. But this could pop anywhere. Global debt has gone up massively since the pandemic: public debt, corporate debt, everything.”
Rogoff believes that it is a miracle that the world averted a financial crisis in 2022, but the odds of a major accident are shortening as the delayed effects of past tightening feed through.
As Rogoff said: “We were very fortunate that we didn’t have a global systemic event in 2022, and we can count our blessings for that, but rates are still going higher and the risk keeps rising.”
But lurking in the murkiness is also the global financial assets/liabilities which is almost $500 trillion including the shadow banking system at 46% of the total. The shadow banking sector includes pension funds, hedge funds and other financial institutions which are largely unregulated.....More Below
https://goldswitzerland.com/as-west-debt-stocks-implode-east-gold-oil-will-explode/
Ecuadorian voters have rejected a proposal to permit the return of US military bases, according to preliminary referendum results.
Ecuadorians went to the ballot box on Sunday to decide whether US forces should again operate from local facilities. The nation had banned foreign bases in 2008 amid concerns over sovereignty.
With three-quarters of ballots counted, about 60% voted ‘no’ to the plan advanced by President Daniel Noboa, a close ally of US President Donald Trump and a supporter of US military operations in the Caribbean and near Venezuela.
The result blocks any US effort to return to the Manta airbase on the Pacific coast, which once served as a platform for Washington’s regional military operations.
The referendum also asked voters whether to end public funding for political parties, reduce the number of lawmakers, and create an elected body to draft a constitution.....more below
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The Jewish state says the incident in southern Lebanon was due to poor weather conditions, with no casualties reported.
UN peacekeepers stationed in southern Lebanon have accused Israel of firing on one of their patrols, criticizing the country for its “aggressive behavior.” Israel has acknowledged that the incident occurred, but said it was not intentional and was due to poor weather conditions.
In a statement on Sunday, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) fired on personnel from a Merkava tank.
It called the incident “a serious violation” of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon that ended the 2006 war, stressing that it was not the first attack of this kind. “Yet again, we call on the IDF to cease any aggressive behavior and attacks on or near peacekeepers, who are working to support the return to the stability that both Israel and Lebanon say they seek.”.... more below
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Iran’s largest credit institution has gone into administration amid the government’s continued push to reform the country’s banking and financial system.
The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) said on Sunday that it had appointed a team of three administrators to restructure the Melal Credit Institution after the lender accumulated a loss of 650 trillion rials ($590 million)
Head of CBI’s regulatory and oversight department Farshad Mohammadpour said the Melal Institution had an asset–liability mismatch of 450 trillion rials and its capital adequacy ratio was minus 41%.
Mohammadpour said that administrators are expected to restructure the Melal Institution in the next six months, mainly by selling off its non-banking assets, properties and affiliated enterprises to pay down its debts.
CBI’s decision about Melal Institution comes three weeks after the lender declared Bank Ayandeh, one of Iran's largest private banks, insolvent and transferred its assets and staff to the state-run Bank ...
