The probability of economic downturn in 2023 is very high despite the signs of easing inflation, experts warn
Higher interest rates will push the US economy into recession in the coming year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing its latest quarterly survey of economists.
According to the report, business and academic economists on average put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%. The forecast is slightly changed from 63% in October’s survey.
The WSJ report indicated that the Federal Reserve had initially hoped it could bring down inflation with only a slowing in economic growth rather than an outright contraction, an outcome dubbed a “soft landing.” However, three-quarters of respondents polled by the Journal said the Fed wouldn’t achieve a soft landing this year.
The warning comes despite a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation. The report said that, as measured by the year-over-year change in the consumer-price index, inflation has eased from 9.1% last June to 6.5% in December. Economists expect it to fall to 3.1% by the end of this year and see it ending 2024 at 2.4%.
“While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists told the WSJ in the survey. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they explained.
Meanwhile, chief economist at EY-Parthenon Greg Daco said that “[w]hile services activity remains robust, the housing sector is tumbling under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and manufacturing activity is stalling–both signaling a broader economic downturn is likely coming.” The expert expects the combination of persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions and weaker global growth will push the US economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.
Overall, economists said that a recession can’t be avoided but that they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived.
On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year and to contract at 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth, according to the report.
https://www.rt.com/business/569931-rising-risks-us-recession/
Mohsen Rezaee, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, has said preconditions include reparations and security guarantees
For the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US to conclude, the latter must withdraw its military forces from the Persian Gulf, according to a member of the advisory board of Iran’s supreme leader.
Mohsen Rezaee, a retired major general and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), added that Tehran would also seek full restitution for the damage done and ironclad security guarantees from Washington.
In an interview with Iran’s SNN TV broadcaster published on Saturday, the member of the Expediency Discernment Council said that the “presence of the US in the Persian Gulf has been the main cause of insecurity over the past 50 years.”
“The end of the war is also in our hands,” Rezaee claimed, naming the “US withdrawal from the Persian Gulf” among the key prerequisites. Additionally, Iran expects to receive reparations from the ...
The spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has accused the United States and Israel of deploying a rebranded copy of Iran’s Shahed-136 drone, designated “Lucas,” to carry out attacks on civilian infrastructure in regional countries as part of a deliberate false-flag operation aimed at framing the Islamic Republic.
In an official statement released today, the spokesman explained that after suffering military setbacks on the battlefield and failing to build political coalitions against Iran, the enemy has resorted to deception.
The statement specifically warned that the objective of these operations is to “create doubt and accuse the Islamic Republic of Iran” while sowing discord between Tehran and its neighbors, thereby undermining the legitimacy of Iran’s defensive actions.
The spokesman pointed to a series of “suspicious attacks” in recent days on facilities in friendly neighboring countries, including Turkey, Kuwait, and Iraq, which Western media outlets and hostile ...
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has announced the execution of the 51st wave of Operation True Promise 4, launching missile strikes against US military installations across the region in retaliation for ongoing American-Israeli aggression against the country.
The IRGC announced the latest wave was carried out using a combination of liquid-fuel and solid-fuel missiles against US terrorist army forces at the Al Kharj Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
According to the IRGC statement, Al Kharj base served as the "origin of aggressions against the Islamic homeland," functioning as the staging ground for US F-35 and F-16 fighter jets involved in attacks on Iran.
The base also houses fuel supply aircraft and serves as the main hub for American AWACS surveillance planes.
Concurrently, the spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters confirmed that the fiftieth wave of the operation struck multiple US terrorist army bases.
They include the Al Dhafra Air Base and Fujairah in the UAE, Jufair in ...
