The probability of economic downturn in 2023 is very high despite the signs of easing inflation, experts warn
Higher interest rates will push the US economy into recession in the coming year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing its latest quarterly survey of economists.
According to the report, business and academic economists on average put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%. The forecast is slightly changed from 63% in October’s survey.
The WSJ report indicated that the Federal Reserve had initially hoped it could bring down inflation with only a slowing in economic growth rather than an outright contraction, an outcome dubbed a “soft landing.” However, three-quarters of respondents polled by the Journal said the Fed wouldn’t achieve a soft landing this year.
The warning comes despite a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation. The report said that, as measured by the year-over-year change in the consumer-price index, inflation has eased from 9.1% last June to 6.5% in December. Economists expect it to fall to 3.1% by the end of this year and see it ending 2024 at 2.4%.
“While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists told the WSJ in the survey. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they explained.
Meanwhile, chief economist at EY-Parthenon Greg Daco said that “[w]hile services activity remains robust, the housing sector is tumbling under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and manufacturing activity is stalling–both signaling a broader economic downturn is likely coming.” The expert expects the combination of persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions and weaker global growth will push the US economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.
Overall, economists said that a recession can’t be avoided but that they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived.
On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year and to contract at 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth, according to the report.
https://www.rt.com/business/569931-rising-risks-us-recession/
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps’ (IRGC) Intelligence Unit says Iran will consider the Israeli regime’s shelters “legitimate targets” if residential areas in the country come under attack.
In a post published on social media platform X on Tuesday, the IRGC said that any strikes on residential areas in Iran would give Iran’s armed forces the right to attack Israeli shelters in the occupied lands.
The IRGC stated that it has intelligence on the blueprints and the exact locations of these shelters.
Iran began its Operation True Promise 4 after the US and Israel launched their joint military aggression against the Islamic Republic in late February by assassinating Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei, and several senior Iranian officials.
In its latest wave of attacks, the IRGC said it rained down missiles on the Israeli regime’s “secure” intelligence facilities in Tel Aviv.
Iranian armed forces have also pounded American military bases and ...
In a fresh wave of retaliatory strikes, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) targeted the Israeli regime’s “secure” intelligence facilities in Tel Aviv.
The IRGC’s Public Relations Department said in a statement on Tuesday that it had carried out the 79th wave of its ongoing retaliatory Operation True Promise 4 against the Israeli and American targets.
Deploying powerful Kheybar Shekan, Emad, and Sejjil missiles alongside IRGC Aerospace Force kamikaze drones, the operation successfully breached the regime's multi-layered air defense systems, the statement said.
The missiles, it stated, targeted Israel’s intelligence facilities in northern and central Tel Aviv, as well as military commercial and support centers in Ramat Gan and the Negev.
The missiles also hit Israel’s southern military logistics and command headquarters in Beersheba.
The missile strikes triggered widespread panic across Israel and forced the suspension of a Knesset (parliament) session on Tuesday.
...
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) announces staging the 78th wave of its underway retaliatory Operation True Promise 4, targeting such highly sensitive Israeli targets as Dimona, Tel Aviv, and Eilat as well as several US military bases in the region.
In a statement on Tuesday, the IRGC described the latest phase of the operation as a significant development featuring missiles raining down on enemy targets as the nation was leveling momentous support behind the Islamic Republic by attending millions-strong rallies with "clenched fists."
'A distinct record'
The latest phase, it noted, "has set a distinct record in the timeline of the war."
According to the statement, targets in the occupied port of Eilat, Dimona, a heavily fortified city that hosts the Israeli regime's notorious nuclear reactor in its vicinity, and northern Tel Aviv were struck using Emad and multi-warhead Qadr missile systems along with attack drones.
This was the second time the Corps was hitting Dimona, ...
