The probability of economic downturn in 2023 is very high despite the signs of easing inflation, experts warn
Higher interest rates will push the US economy into recession in the coming year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing its latest quarterly survey of economists.
According to the report, business and academic economists on average put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%. The forecast is slightly changed from 63% in October’s survey.
The WSJ report indicated that the Federal Reserve had initially hoped it could bring down inflation with only a slowing in economic growth rather than an outright contraction, an outcome dubbed a “soft landing.” However, three-quarters of respondents polled by the Journal said the Fed wouldn’t achieve a soft landing this year.
The warning comes despite a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation. The report said that, as measured by the year-over-year change in the consumer-price index, inflation has eased from 9.1% last June to 6.5% in December. Economists expect it to fall to 3.1% by the end of this year and see it ending 2024 at 2.4%.
“While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists told the WSJ in the survey. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they explained.
Meanwhile, chief economist at EY-Parthenon Greg Daco said that “[w]hile services activity remains robust, the housing sector is tumbling under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and manufacturing activity is stalling–both signaling a broader economic downturn is likely coming.” The expert expects the combination of persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions and weaker global growth will push the US economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.
Overall, economists said that a recession can’t be avoided but that they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived.
On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year and to contract at 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth, according to the report.
https://www.rt.com/business/569931-rising-risks-us-recession/
Volker Turk has warned that efforts to advance reparatory justice are facing resistance in “certain quarters,” and urged countries to back Africa’s push.
Reparatory justice for historical crimes, including colonialism, enslavement, and the trade in enslaved Africans, is crucial to dismantling systemic racism, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has said.
Speaking at the UN Permanent Forum on People of African Descent on Tuesday, Turk linked present-day discrimination against people from the continent to the enduring legacy of colonialism and enslavement.
”Racism and dehumanizing rhetoric continue to permeate public institutions, communities, and online platforms,” he said, according to the UN Press Service. Turk noted that “digital technologies, including AI, are reproducing and amplifying existing biases against people of African descent.”
The remarks come weeks after the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution declaring the transatlantic slave trade “the gravest...
The US VP had to defend President Trump’s Gaza policy at a rally on a Georgia college campus.
US Vice President J.D. Vance was forced to defend Washington’s policy in Gaza after he was booed and heckled at a key MAGA event on Wednesday.
Co-founded by the late Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA (TPUSA) is a conservative student group that has long been seen as a strong support base of President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement but is now showing apparent cracks.
Less than 15 minutes into a TPUSA event at the University of Georgia on Wednesday, Vance was interrupted by hecklers over US policy in Gaza, with one audience member shouting, “Jesus Christ does not support genocide!” As he attempted to respond, others shouted, “You’re killing children!” and “You’re bombing children!”
Vance replied by referring to Trump’s achievements as president, including securing a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, something he said the previous administration of Joe Biden failed to do.
“I ...
Sergey Shoigu has cautioned Finland and the Baltic states against allowing Kiev to use their airspace for attacks on Russia.
Russia would have the right to retaliate if Finland and the Baltic states are deliberately allowing Ukrainian drones to pass through their airspace, Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu said on Thursday.
“Recently, there has been an increase in Ukrainian drone strikes against Russia via Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia,” Shoigu told journalists. “As a result, civilians are suffering and significant damage is being caused to civilian infrastructure.”
Either Western air defenses are proving ineffective, or these four countries “deliberately provide their airspace, thereby becoming open accomplices in aggression against Russia,” he added. In the latter case, Moscow has the right to self-defense in response to an “armed attack” under Article 51 of the UN Charter, the security chief stressed.
In recent weeks, Kiev has intensified drone strikes on ...
