The probability of economic downturn in 2023 is very high despite the signs of easing inflation, experts warn
Higher interest rates will push the US economy into recession in the coming year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing its latest quarterly survey of economists.
According to the report, business and academic economists on average put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%. The forecast is slightly changed from 63% in October’s survey.
The WSJ report indicated that the Federal Reserve had initially hoped it could bring down inflation with only a slowing in economic growth rather than an outright contraction, an outcome dubbed a “soft landing.” However, three-quarters of respondents polled by the Journal said the Fed wouldn’t achieve a soft landing this year.
The warning comes despite a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation. The report said that, as measured by the year-over-year change in the consumer-price index, inflation has eased from 9.1% last June to 6.5% in December. Economists expect it to fall to 3.1% by the end of this year and see it ending 2024 at 2.4%.
“While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists told the WSJ in the survey. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they explained.
Meanwhile, chief economist at EY-Parthenon Greg Daco said that “[w]hile services activity remains robust, the housing sector is tumbling under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and manufacturing activity is stalling–both signaling a broader economic downturn is likely coming.” The expert expects the combination of persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions and weaker global growth will push the US economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.
Overall, economists said that a recession can’t be avoided but that they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived.
On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year and to contract at 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth, according to the report.
https://www.rt.com/business/569931-rising-risks-us-recession/
The prices of some life-saving medicines have soared to levels that are unaffordable for ordinary people in Venezuela as the United States has ramped up military presence in the Caribbean off Venezuela's coast, alongside escalating sanctions, blockades and military threats against the oil-rich South American nation since late August.
https://www.presstv.ir/default/Embeded/761400
At a northeastern suburb in the capital city Caracas, locals can still purchase most of the commonly used medicines at a major supermarket, where some antibiotics have been sold out, and some first-aid medicines and supplies have become too costly for ordinary residents.
"I'm here mainly to buy antibiotics. I have problems with my lungs. But I can't get all I want, such as vancomycin," said a resident named Alfonso.
"Recent tensions have affected the supplies and prices of drugs. The prices of cancer drugs, insulin drugs and albumin are very high, and most patients here cannot afford them," said Giovanna Gonzalez a ...
Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow is prepared to use military force to achieve the goals of its special military operation if Ukraine continues to delay peace talks.
During an inspection of a Russian armed forces command post on Saturday, Putin stressed that Moscow will not allow Kiev’s obstruction to prevent progress.
“If the Kiev authorities do not want to resolve the matter peacefully, we will accomplish all the tasks before us in the course of the special military operation by military means,” he said.
The Russian leader noted that the Ukrainian authorities are not moving toward a peaceful resolution, adding, “We see that even today, unfortunately, the leaders of the Kiev regime are in no hurry to resolve this conflict peacefully. I spoke about this a year ago in a speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.”
Putin also received reports from Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov and commanders of Russia’s “Centre” and “East” military groups.
Meanwhile, ...
