The probability of economic downturn in 2023 is very high despite the signs of easing inflation, experts warn
Higher interest rates will push the US economy into recession in the coming year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing its latest quarterly survey of economists.
According to the report, business and academic economists on average put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%. The forecast is slightly changed from 63% in October’s survey.
The WSJ report indicated that the Federal Reserve had initially hoped it could bring down inflation with only a slowing in economic growth rather than an outright contraction, an outcome dubbed a “soft landing.” However, three-quarters of respondents polled by the Journal said the Fed wouldn’t achieve a soft landing this year.
The warning comes despite a slightly more optimistic outlook on inflation. The report said that, as measured by the year-over-year change in the consumer-price index, inflation has eased from 9.1% last June to 6.5% in December. Economists expect it to fall to 3.1% by the end of this year and see it ending 2024 at 2.4%.
“While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists told the WSJ in the survey. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they explained.
Meanwhile, chief economist at EY-Parthenon Greg Daco said that “[w]hile services activity remains robust, the housing sector is tumbling under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and manufacturing activity is stalling–both signaling a broader economic downturn is likely coming.” The expert expects the combination of persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions and weaker global growth will push the US economy into a mild recession in the first half of 2023.
Overall, economists said that a recession can’t be avoided but that they expect it to be relatively shallow and short-lived.
On average, they expect gross domestic product to expand at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter of this year and to contract at 0.4% in the second. They see no growth for the third quarter and a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth, according to the report.
https://www.rt.com/business/569931-rising-risks-us-recession/
US President Donald Trump confirmed on Wednesday the upcoming start of ground strikes against drug cartel targets in Latin America.
He made the remarks during Christmas greetings to the military.
Trump said the United States was "now going after the land" in its fight against drug cartel targets, noting that drug trafficking by sea was down 96 percent.
The U.S. president also extended special congratulations to the crew of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, currently deployed in the Caribbean.
BEIJING (Sputnik) - China has begun operating the world's first intelligent ultra-large oil tanker powered by methanol, the China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Monday.
The tanker, designed to transport crude oil, was successfully put into operation in the city of Dalian in China's northeastern coastal province of Liaoning, the report said. State-owned company Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co Ltd independently designed and built the vessel, it added.
The tanker is approximately 333 meters (1,092 feet) long and can carry around 2.1 million barrels of crude oil, the CCTV reported. Designed to produce low emissions and having intelligent control capabilities, the tanker will serve the route to the Middle East, among others, according to the report.
The vessel is powered by a dual-fuel methanol engine, which reduces carbon dioxide emissions by 92% compared to conventional fuel, the CCTV reported. It is equipped with an intelligent ship platform, an intelligent liquid cargo ...
A car bomb has killed a senior General Staff member, officials have confirmed
Source: The Investigative Committee
A Russian general has been killed in a car bomb blast in Moscow, the Investigative Committee has reported.
Officials identified the victim as Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, head of operational training at the General Staff. According to the statement, an explosive device had been planted beneath the vehicle he was traveling in, and detonated on Monday morning in the southern part of the Russian capital.
The blast also damaged several other vehicles and seriously injured Sarvarov’s driver, media reports stated.
Russian officials said one line of investigation is an assassination carried out by Ukrainian intelligence services, noting that Kiev has previously used explosive devices in targeted killings of officials and public figures.
Last December, a bomb hidden in an e-scooter killed Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, commander of Russia’s Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense ...
