This past spring, Finland and Sweden broke with decades of neutrality by announcing their intent to join NATO, ostensibly in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. The accession process has been held up by Turkey over Stockholm and Helsinki’s support for Kurdish fighters Ankara classifies as “terrorists,” and could drag on into 2023.
Military Thought, the Russian Defense Ministry’s official theoretical journal, has outlined some of the concrete measures the Russian military will be forced to take if and when Finland and Sweden become members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“Although the planned accession of Finland and Sweden into the NATO bloc represents the legal registration of long-established relations, this must be considered as one of the most urgent challenges to the Russian Federation, which will require the adoption of a series of adequate measures,” a paper published in the journal’s December issue indicated.
The need for such “adequate measures” is related, first and foremost, to the fact that once the Nordics join the bloc, more than 1,000 km of NATO territory will appear on Russia’s borders, after which the alliance can deploy military equipment, troops, and tactical missile systems there that would threaten the military-industrial and transport infrastructure of Russia’s Arkhangelsk region.
Military Thought outlined the measures Russia’s Armed Forces will need to take in response to the emergent threat. “On our part, this will require building up the ground and coastal forces in the northern direction, missile forces and artillery, air defense and aviation, including unmanned aircraft, as well as the planning of strikes using long-range precision weapons against targets in Finland and Sweden,” the article warned.
Such a shift in the regional balance of forces would ruin decades of trouble-free relations that Moscow and Helsinki enjoyed for decades going back to the post-WWII period, which allowed both countries to limit defense expenditures and force presence along one another’s borders, and to engage in economic and cross-border cooperation.
Moscow has expressed concerns over the impact that Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO would have on regional security. Last week, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that their accession could lead to “increased militarization of the Arctic region,” and a consequent “significant increase of tensions and security risks.”.....more below
